Forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) have doubled down on their previous predictions regarding the 2024 hurricane season. The Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team at CSU released their ...

Markets are full of predictions that cannot be checked until after the fact. Implied probability is different. It is already priced, already quantified, and therefore testable.

The 2-year/10-year Bund spread closed the week at a positive 2.7 basis points. As a result, today’s simulation shows that the probability of a return to negative spreads in the 91-day period ending ...

Something in the sky captured the attention of astronomers in the final days of 2024. A telescope in Chile scanning the night sky detected a faint point of light, and it didn’t correspond to any of ...

Researchers from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco studied financial markets to divine the probability of the Fed's benchmark interest rate falling back to zero. During the 2008 ...